A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
